String of Pearls

Preface.

The “String of Pearls” is a Strategic Study which describes the manifestation of Peoples Republic of China (PRC) or simply China’s rising geopolitical influence through efforts to increase access to ports and airfields, develop special diplomatic relationships, and modernize military forces that extend from the South China Sea through the Strait of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean, and on to the Arabian Gulf. A question posed by the “String of Pearls” is the uncertainty of whether China’s growing influence is in accordance with Beijing’s stated policy of “peaceful development,” or if China one day will make a bid for regional primacy. This is a complex strategic situation that could determine the future direction of China’s relationship with the India, as well as China’s relationship with neighbors throughout the region. Lieutenant colonel of the U.S. Air CHRISTOPHER J. PEHRSON was the first to publish the PRC`s String of Pearls strategy in 2006. The original article was published in the context of US maritime strategy in South East Asia, the current study in based on the same article viewed in Indian Context in Indian Ocean region.

What is a String of Pearls?

Each “pearl” in the “String of Pearls” is a nexus of Chinese geopolitical influence or military presence. Hainan Island, with recently upgraded military facilities, is a “pearl.” An upgraded airstrip on Woody Island, located in the Paracel archipelago 300 nautical miles east of Vietnam, is a “pearl.” Acontainer shipping facility in Chittagong, Bangladesh, is a “pearl.” Construction of a deep water port in Sittwe, Myanmar, is a “pearl,” as is the construction of a navy base in Gwadar, Pakistan. Port and airfield construction projects, diplomatic ties, and force modernization form the essence of China’s “String of Pearls.” The “pearls” extend from the coast of mainland China through the littorals of the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean, and on to the littorals of the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. China is building strategic relationships and developing a capability to establish a forward presence along the sea lines of communication (SLOCs) that connect China to the MiddleEast (see Figure)

The “String of Pearls” is more than a naval or military strategy. It also is more than a regional strategy. It is a manifestation of China’s ambition to attain great power status and secure a self-determined, peaceful, and prosperous future.

Motivation behind the string of Pearls

China’s development, from its expanding economy and increased global influence to its growing military might and demand for energy, presents tremendous challenges to China’s leaders as they manage the turmoil of massive structural, technological, and social changes. The governing elites of China have three overarching concerns:

a) Regime Survival, b) Territorial integrity & domestic stability c) Quest for Energy.

A. Regime survival is the foremost concern of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and party leadership is acutely aware that their success hinges upon the satisfaction of the Chinese people and the government’s ability to protect Chinese national interests. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War exposed communism as a bankrupt ideology with a flawed economic system. As the last remaining major communist state, China’s leaders have sought to avoid the fate of the Soviet Union and other Eastern European communist regimes by turning away from traditional Marxist-Leninist-Maoist ideology and adopting a “socialist market economy,” a thinly-veiled euphemism for Chinese-style capitalism. The CCP has maintained authoritarian control amid a sea change of economic and social reforms and, as long as reforms stay on track and the economy continues to thrive and resurgent nationalism remains manageable, expectations are that regime survival will not be threatened.

B. Since the end of the Cold War, China has made progress with respect to territorial integrity. Although the unification of Taiwan persists as a contentious issue and territorial disputes remain, such as a competing claim with Japan over sovereignty of the Diaoyutai (Senkaku) Islands, China successfully has stabilized and demilitarized its land borders in North and Central Asia. China is becoming more influential in Central Asia under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), whose member states consist of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, along with the observer members of India, Pakistan, Iran, and Mongolia. On the southwestern border, a long-standing territorial dispute with India over Chinese-controlled portions of Kashmir (Aksai Chin), Finger Point area in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. India is showing signs of slow but pragmatic progress. During Prime Minister Vajpayee’s visit to China in 2003, India, for the first time, recognized China’s claims to Tibet and China reciprocated by recognizing India’s claim to the Himalayan state of Sikkim. Also recent growing India-US relationship in strategic issue is a matter of great concern.

Domestic Stability is also a matter of great concern for PRC, recent uprising in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region by Uyghur Muslims for a Separate Uyghur nation which Chinese government has often referred to Uyghur nationalists as "terrorists". In July 2009, a series of violent clashes erupted between Uyghurs, Chinese state police, and Han residents in the city of Ürümqi resulting in at least 197 deaths and several injured. The long standing issue of Tibet Autonomous Region which PRC occupied in 1950 and expelled 14th Dalai Lama and his government who along with his followers fled to India and set up the Government of Tibet in Exile. India`s continued support to Dalai Lama and Tibet has led PRC to conceive India as main threat to its long term Objective of becoming a Super Power.

C. An ever-increasing demand for energy fuels China’s growth. The majority of China’s energy requirement, 70 percent, is currently met by coal —China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal. Twenty-five percent is met by oil, 3 percent by natural gas, and the remaining 2 percent by other energy sources, including nuclear and hydroelectric power. Although coal will remain preeminent, oil consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.8 percent for the next 10 years. In 1985, China was East Asia’s largest petroleum exporter, in 1993 China became a net oil importer; and in 2004, China leapfrogged Japan to become the world’s second largest oil importer. Roughly 40 percent of all new world oil demand is attributable to China’s rising energy needs. Secure access to foreign oil resources will be necessary both for continued economic growth and, because growth is the cornerstone of China’s domestic stability, for the survival of the Chinese Communist regime. The geopolitical strategy dubbed the “String of Pearls” is arising as foreign oil becomes a center of gravity critical to China’s energy needs. China’s energy acquisition efforts are expanding globally throughout the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, and the Americas. Over 70 percent of China’s oil imports come from the Middle East and Africa, all of which are transported by sea. Although China seeks to obtain secure supply lines and reduce dependence on a limited number of energy suppliers, sea transport from the Middle East and Africa will remain the primary mode of petroleum import for the foreseeable future. Saudi Arabia is China’s largest crude oil supplier, and the Saudi national oil company, Aramco, is a 25 percent investor in China’s biggest refinery and petrochemical complex. China recently signed a 25-year oil and natural gas deal with Iran, its biggest ever, worth over $70 billion. In Africa, China has invested $3 billion to develop Sudan’s unexploited oil resources, including a 930-mile pipeline, a refinery, and a sea port. Presently, transport by sea is China’s most viable mode of energy supply. China has energy projects in Central Asia, such as an agreement to develop oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan and agreements to construct pipelines in Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan, among others, but the projects have proven expensive, logistically difficult, and complicated by inadequate infrastructure in western China. Central Asia also is plagued by regional instability which adds to the uncertainty of future development and long-term reliability. The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) negotiated a deal with the Russian oil giant, Yukos, in 2003, but the venture fell apart when the Russian government first dismantled Yukos and then accepted Japan’s higher bid on the project.For the foreseeable future, China will depend heavily on international sea-lanes, through the Strait of Malacca and other navigational chokepoints, to import oil from the Middle East and Africa.

Vulnerability of sea lines of communication (SLOC) is perceived as a geopolitical risk because China’s current means of protecting these sea routes is extremely limited, as the chokepoint at the Strait of Malacca clearly illustrates. SLOCs connecting China with Africa and the Middle East pass through the Strait of Malacca, a narrow passage jointly administered by Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Ninety-five percent of the oil used in China is transported by sea, and 80 percent of that is shipped through the strait (see Picture).

Strategic and Military Impact on India

Strategic Geo political:

The “String of Pearls” presents a complex strategic situation with many facets. Indian policymakers’ major concerns are the potential for competition with China for regional influence, China’s relationship with rogue states, and China’s military modernization. The collapse of the Soviet Union facilitated the growth of China’s influence and presence along the “String of Pearls” in the South China Sea, Indian Ocean, and Arabian Sea, by allowing Beijing greater strategic latitude. China’s growing regional influence is sparked not only by a strong economy, but also by strategic ambition and a sense of historical grievance. The collapse of the Soviet Union and withdrawal of Soviet forces from Mongolia removed pressure on China’s northern and western borders. To the south, Vietnam was deprived of support from its Soviet benefactor and forced to withdraw from Cambodia, which also relieved pressure on China. The balance of power throughout the “String of Pearls” region has shifted and will continue to shift as China grows in strength and stature. Changes to this balance are primarily economic, diplomatic, and “soft power” changes. Countries like Pakistan, Myanmar, Cambodia, Nepal, Bangladesh, Srilanka and Vietnam to welcome overtures from China. Even the regional allies like—Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines are increasingly finding it in their self-interest to improve ties with China.

China`s focus on achieving practical strategic objectives and maintains favorable relations with “rogue states” and `Separatist entities` that have histories and reputations of behavior objectionable to the world community— weapons proliferators, human rights abusers, aggressive military postures, and supporters of terrorism examples like Maoists in Nepal and in India, Separatists groups in Northeast states like ULFA, Bodo terrorists are all funded by Beijing.

PRC is also clandestinely involved and continuously supported Pakistan`s Nuclear and Missile Program, Iran, North Korea and Libyan Nuclear Programs is a matter of great concern to India as Pakistan`s Nuclear and Missile Program are directly aimed at India.

Military:

China began modernizing its armed forces and procuring sophisticated weapons after observing the overwhelming success and technological prowess of the U.S.-led coalition during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. This was signaled by the Peoples Liberation Army Air force (PLAAF) purchase of 24 Su-27 advanced all-weather fighters from Russia in 1992, China’s first venture into fielding a first-rate air force. In 1993, China began the acquisition of advanced surface-to-air missiles, towed-array anti-submarine sonar, multiple-target torpedo control systems, nuclear submarine propulsion systems, and technology to improve the range of its undersea-launched cruise missiles. The Su-27s and these other military systems procured from Russia enhanced China’s power projection capability and heightened the threat to Taiwan. In 1999, China signed a contract with Russia for 40 Su-30 ground attack aircraft and a contract for approximately 40 more was signed in 2001.In the 1990s, the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) expressed interest in acquiring aircraft carriers, and more recently military leadership has stated China’s intent to build aircraft carriers, true instruments of power projection. Rhetorical statements aside, there is no evidence of China’s furthering this ambition, either because of Chinese restraint and strategic forethought in accordance with the country’s overall “peaceful development’ strategy, or because the PLAN is not robust or mature enough to put a carrier to sea without incurring substantial risk. Deploying an aircraft carrier would not occur overnight, and the PLAN is certainly many years away from actually launching one. In 1994, China began modernizing its submarine fleet with the purchase of four Russian Kilo-class attack submarines, followed by a subsequent agreement to purchase eight more in 2002. China also has purchased four Sovremmeny-class destroyers equipped with the SS-N-22 advanced anti-ship cruise missile. These Kilo-class submarines and guided-missile destroyers pose an acute threat to Indian aircraft carriers and Ships and provide China with greater latitude to project power at sea than any previously possessed.

People's Liberation Army Ground Force (PLAGF) deploys 7,500 main battle tanks, 5,500 armoured personnel carriers, 2,200 infantry fighting vehicles and 25,000 artillery pieces. Its regular forces consist of 2.3 million personnel, with an additional 800,000 personnel in reserve, making it the largest active standing army in the world, and second largest in terms of army personnel. People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) With a personnel strength of over 250,000, the PLAN also includes the 35,000 strong Coastal Defense Force and the 56,000 man Naval infantry/Marines, plus a 56,000 PLAN Aviation naval air arm operating several hundred land-based aircraft and ship-based helicopters. People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) consists of approximately 400,000 personnel and about 2000 combat aircraft making the PLAAF the largest air force in Asia and the third largest in the world behind the United States Air Force, and the Russian Air Force.

Indian Army Ground Force With about 1,414,000 soldiers in active serviceand about 1,800,000 reserve troops, the Indian Army is the world's second largest active standing army and the largest in terms of army populace. The Indian Army plans operates 4,000 T-72s, over 2,500 T-90s, and few thousand other tanks. Indian Navy currently has approximately 55,000 personnel on active duty, including 5,000 members of the naval aviation branch and 2,000 marine commandos, making it the world's fifth largest navyThe Indian Navy currently operates more than 155 vessels, including the aircraft carrier INS Viraat, along with operational jet fighters. Indian Air Force With strength of approximately 170,000 personnel and 1,700 aircraft, including 852 combat aircraft in active service, the Indian Air Force is the world's fourth largest.

The above Data clearly shows PLA`s numerical superiority against Indian Armed Forces.

India`s Potential Military Confrontation with PRC in Future

More concerning, and perhaps more significant for the long-term health of the India-China relationship, are areas of divergent national interests. Although China and the India share many congruent interests and in fact PRC is India’s biggest trading partner but, there also are areas of friction. Most notably are the issue of Tibet, Long standing border issue in Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim & Aksai chin (china has illegally occupied 35,000 sq km of Indian territory in J&K during 1962 war) & PRC continued support for Maoists and separatists in Northeast states. Apart from these core issues PRC has continuously supported for Pakistani Military modernization and Nuclear Programs and china’s silent support for Pakistani Militants in J&K.

The Chinese destructive engagement with Pakistan has been the main stumbling block toward confidence building in South Asia in general and it directly threatens the Indian peace and security in particular. In reality, China’s continued technology and weapon transfers to Pakistan are intended to provoke conflict between India and Pakistan. Beijing seeks to increase the capabilities of Pakistan in the hope that Pakistan might deliver a disturbing threat to India. It is known by now that Pakistan’s nuclear test in 1998 was not ‘reactive’ but ‘self-perceived’ in true sense. The chronology of events that led to Pakistani missile and nuclear tests suggest that Islamabad’s efforts and stockpile of non-conventional weapons are the result of a sustained war strategy against India. It is ineluctable that though the idea of having bomb was indigenous, evidence negates the originality of in-house technological capability to what Pakistan claims for. The key acquisitions and development of non-conventional weaponry have been imported from outside. And, against all international norms China still remains the leading exporter to Pakistan to provide with a whole range of related technologies right from development to deployment of nuclear weapons. It has been reported that during negotiations with the US, China has described Pakistan as its Israel. And, China links the M-11 Missile transfers to Pakistan with the US sale of F-16s to Israel.

It is clear that china does want to look India as leading player in World Area and it constantly wanted to undermine Indian influence in the region and beyond by putting pressure on India Militarily and economically through direct and indirect method. The String of Pearl`s strategy is not just economically driven but also PRC`s ambition to maintain a Regional Hegemony in Indian Ocean region but, the biggest problem in achieving this is India`s rapid progress in Economy in last decades, growing Military Might and recent coziness with US in strategic level coupled with Geographical Location on India. These divergent national interests of PRC and India has all the potential to cause a Military Standoff between the two countries in near Future.

In any standoff between china on can expect Pakistan to start a Kargil like adventure in J&K or in worst case may declare a full scale War on India which results in India fighting a two front war. It will be a war of our very existence as country.

Facing the Dooms Day.

If armed conflict happens with PRC the first step, is accurate strategic intelligence. The intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities of national assets and the Department of Defense (DoD) are vital to this strategic intelligence effort. India should Quickly develop its own Military reconnaissance satellites something in similar to US GPS and Russian Glonass to monitor our border as well as Maritime sea lanes. India should closely work with US intelligence agency (CIA), Japanese & Russian intelligence agency to get strategic intelligence with regards to PRC`s Military activity. The recent warm up in India-US relationship has provided us an opportunity to work closely with US military in areas of strategic interest of both countries. US after the collapse of Soviet Union has constantly watched PRC and its clandestine involvement in Nuclear Proliferation to the `Rouge State`. US Naval base in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan had kept the PLAN safely in its home water till date. But, in the coming future this may not be the same as China`s ever growing Economy and rapid expanding of its military which may one day overpower the US Naval power in its backyard in a struggle to achieve regional supremacy. Washington is clearly aware of this future scenario which for some time searching for a suitable counter weight for PRC in Southeast Asia and now it has zeroed in on India as the Perfect choice. The Indo-US Civil Nuclear deal signed in 2008 is one of the early steps to involve India in its strategic China encirclement program. This new scenario provides India a unique opportunity to get an unmatched Military intelligence from US against China. India should develop a grand strategy working closely with US to counter encircle china in it’s on own Backyard. A strategy in which India should try and get access of US GPS system for Military purpose and keep a close watch on Chinese Military movements from US Spy Satellites. India should try to embed under water listening device to detect low-frequency sounds in the Straits of Malacca, something which is similar to `SOSUS (Sound Surveillance System) ` developed by US & Britain in Greenland, Iceland & UK gap (GUIK) during Cold War to track and monitor PRC`s submarine and ship movements. US Navy with its latest `Virginia Class` SSK which is specifically built for Signal Intelligence (SIGNIT) & Electronic Intelligence (ELINIT) collection in Littoral waters is rumored to be spying on Chinese Nuclear Subs from Naval base in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, India should try to get the information of Chinese Nuclear Sub`s Thermal Radiation & Propeller noise level which will greatly help Indian Navy in hunting down Chinese Subs.

If Possible India should try to construct overseas Naval bases in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia in order to Monitor Chinese Naval activities in Straits of Malacca by using Geopolitical influence. If in case if they do not agree, India should try to make Military alliance with them. India should also focus on developing Andaman and Nicobar islands into full scale forward Military base similar to US Midway fleet and should deploy at least one Aircraft carrier task force and Two Squadron of latest Sukhoi 30 MKI fighters which will help in quickly deploy troops into Straits of Malacca in War. However in an event of war with China the above said countries may choose to remain Neutral which India should not let happen and pursue them to join our side. In any scenario if they do not agree, in the `Supreme National Interest` India should Overrun them, occupy their territory, create a Beach head and seal off Straits of Malacca. Keep in mind that if we don’t do it PRC will definitely do it.

India should Try and peruse (with the help of US & Russia as many of these countries were once part of USSR) the Neighboring countries of China like Mongolia, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Taiwan & South Korea and try to build Air force bases and place some of the latest Fighters of IAF like Sukhoi 30 MKI, Mirage 2000 etc in these countries. A squadron of Su30 armed with Air Launched `Nuclear Tipped` Supersonic Brahmos Cruise missile placed in these bases will send shivers down the spine of PRC which has to think thrice not twice before undertaking an military adventure. Overseas Air force bases will help IAF to strike Targets deep inside Chinese Territories which can cause Collateral damage to PRC.

Indigenization of Defence Hardware should be given top Priority because any war against PRC will be a War of Attrition; in order to fight an Attrition war our Military weapons should be home grown. 80% of our Defence equipments are from imports which is a very Bad sign. Indian defence planners and Military should encourage and harness in house technologies. India should also look to diversify its Military Purchase; traditionally 60% of Indian military hardware is of Russian Origin. In a war against China one can expect Russia to remain Neutral by denying spares and support to military goods for both India and China because many of us don’t understand the fact that China is Russia`s biggest Military customer and Russia does not want ruin its market in PRC. This possible move of Russia will severely cripple our war waging capability than china as china’s military weapons import is 60% and rest 40% is home grown. Last decade saw the emergence of Israel as the second largest weapons supplier for us; India has acquired some of the very sophisticated weapons from Israel such as Phalcon AWACS(Airborne Early Warning and Command Center) and Long range tracking radars (LRTR). Recent closeness with US has provided us an opportunity which was previously not available for us in the past to acquire latest US Military hardware. India should diverge its military acquisition and try to get sophisticated weapons from US as US will be more than willing to sell weapons to us but want to make us partner in its future weapons program. Indian defence labs such as DRDO, NAL, ADA, CABS etc should be allowed to work with US and Isreali defence majors such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, GE, Pratt & Whitney, Northrop Grumman, IAI, IMI, Elta, Tadiran etc and co develop sophisticated lethal weapons. Great emphasis should be given for co development of `Anti Ballistic Missile` shield something which is similar to Israeli `Arrow Missile System` which was co developed by US which will ensure the safety of our Territorial integrity from Short & Medium Range Nuclear armed Ballistic Missiles of Pakistan and China (see figure for Arrow Missile System).

Above all these there is an urgent need to expand and improve our `Strategic nuclear & Missile Force` to ups the ante against China. Our current Nuclear & Missile arsenal is insufficient to address the threat from both China & Pakistan simultaneously. Recent revelation of failed Thermonuclear weapon (Hydrogen Bomb) in Pokhran test conducted in 1998 is alarming and there is an outcry from the country’s scientific community to conduct more tests in order to perfect the Thermonuclear Device. It should also be worth noting that even the super powers like US & Russia too has faced serious problems in developing Thermonuclear Device as this is a very complex nuclear system to develop and country`s failure in the first test should not be considered as a shame in accepting, rather try to perfect the device with more tests. Our current missiles like Agni (1,2,3) & Prithvi are insufficient in Range as well as Payload in order to deliver lethal strikes to the far east areas of PRC. What we need is an ICBM (intercontinental range ballistic missile) of range 10,000 KM with a payload capacity of 2Mega ton Thermonuclear MIRV Warheads (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle) to deliver our `Love & Affection` to entire PRC from all parts of India.

Sea based nuclear deterrent is the key for our `Second strike` policy. India should try to develop quickly at least 6 Nuclear Ballistic Missile submarine (SSBN) armed with SLBMS(submarine launched ballistic missile) of range of minimum 5000km. Apart from ssbn`s India should also fast track the building of Nuclear Attack Submarine (SSN) and try to build at least 10 of them very quickly. The recent purchase (so called lease agreement) of Russian Akula class SSN is a very good step in this direction as the Akula class ssn`s are the most lethal Nsubs in Russian naval inventory. The firepower of one single Akula can bring Pakistani Navy on to its Knees. India should shell out some extra (more) money and try to get the details & designs of this sub from Russia which will help us in building this beast in our own dockyards.

Indian intelligence Agency RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) has a major job to do in taking on PRC & Pakistan. Raw should try to achieve contacts with separatist entities operating in china and Pakistan like Uyghur nationalists, Tibet separatists, Baluchistan liberation army etc and try to train and fund in there operations. This will cause a domestic turmoil in both China & Pakistan and in a war the separatist dominated areas will try to remain pro India or would try to create uprising. In any case India will be in advantage position.

In a two front war against PRC & Pakistan, Indian army should try to cut off the communication lines liking both these countries and block the infamous Karakoram highway built in the occupied territories of Kashmir which joins both these countries. India should try to increase the number of mountain division from 10 to at least 14 along china border and fast track the acquisition of Lightweight Howitzer Guns, Artillery and Tanks as the china border is a hilly region and would not support heavy artillery and Tanks. India`s strategy in the initial stage of the war along Chinese front should be of a Pinning down the enemy and make them to bleed. Whereas in western front against Pakistan should be of fast paced quickly moving tank and artillery columns and try to completely overpower and overrun as quickly as possible. Once Pakistan is annihilated completely then India can diverge its main armored columns east ward in a gigantic encirclement of PLA troops starting from Arunachal to Ladakh in J&K. Great emphasis should be given to target and destroy the Pakistani Nuclear complex in Kahuta, the Khan research labs named after infamous nuclear scientist who is the king pin in nuclear proliferation to Libya, Iran & North Korea Dr AQ Khan. PRC will be reluctant to use is Nuclear Weapons outright (initial stages) in a war against us but same cannot be true against Pakistan as it has repeatedly said they will use `whatever` weapon they have in war. Hence, India should keep its options open for a `Pre- emptive Strike` on Pakistani nuclear facilities.

Finally it is the will of the people to stand up together and face the worst will only decide the outcome. Our Political leaders, Military, Intelligence Agency and the common man should all work in synchronization in order to deter the enemy.

Before closing a Quote from a Great man for all of us to remember

“It must be thoroughly understood that the lost land will never be won back by solemn appeals to the God, nor by hopes in any League of Nations, but only by the force of arms”. Adolf Hitler